Things have sure changed...

Phillies Hope To End 364-Day World Series Drought

Top headlines from last night's game:

UGH - LEE! - NY Post
UT-LEE! - Philadelphia Daily News
Complete-Lee in Control - ESPN.com
Lethal Weapon - Yahoo Sports

And I'm going to game two tonight!

Go Phils!

Vegas has the Phillies at approximately +178, making them a substantial underdog. I don't see it - the offenses are comparable, the starting pitching is comparable, the bullpens are comparable (except for Rivera / Lidge). The difference in closers combined with home field advantage can't possibly make the Phils that big of a dog. But hey, I'll take the action.

My obvious pick for key player of the series is Cliff Lee. With potentially three starts, including game 1 - its tough not to pick him. But two underrated pitchers who I think will have a huge role in the series are Chad Durbin and Chan Ho Park. Durbin has thrown four perfect innings thus far in the post-season. Park's innings have been... less perfect. If things go wrong in the middle innings because Pedro or Hamels (or god forbid, Lee) get into some trouble, it will be Durbin or Park who will be brought in to face any tough right-handed hitters the Yankees happen to have.

Like a certain third baseman who did steroids.

Or a certain shortstop who, while an abomination defensively, is still a great hitter.

On a related note, did you know what Derek Jeter's career lines are, compared to his postseason stats?

Career: .317 / .388 / .459
Postseason: .308 / .381 / .477

Its almost as if he is the SAME EXACT player in October / November as he is during the regular season. Incredible!

Anyway, if Durbin or Park win, then we'll probably be down only a run or two and the game will still be in hand. If they don't, then the game is likely over. The same probably holds true for whatever left-handers the Yankees have in their bullpen against Utley and Howard. I think these battles are going to be the key to the series.

Go Phils!

*I'm back at work today, feeling functional but not completely 100%. The past week was a new experience, as I hadn't taken a sick day since I started this lawyering thing. It was like a mini-vacation, except I felt crappy. Actually, the last vacation I took was my honeymoon, and my allergies were going crazy in Paros and Rome, so maybe that's my thing - feel crappy if not at work. Boy that would be bad.

And of course, I got an emergency work assignment at 5 PM on Friday, so I worked through most of the weekend.

*Kim and I celebrated our 6-month anniversary at a random steakhouse called AJ Maxwell's. It wasn't top of the line, but it was only our 6-month anniversary. Do people normally celebrate that? Well, we sort of did, and the food was pretty good. The carpaccio was awesome, and we split a filet mignon topped with fois gras. We also had a $50 off coupon, so that helped defray the cost.

Someone was wearing a beer tee shirt at the restaurant. Hint - it wasn't me. Another hint - it was Kim.

*Kim was talking about how when she was little she loved getting a bucket of KFC. So yesterday, to sort of celebrate us breaking our apartment quarantine, we walked to the KFC that was 10 blocks or so away. We got a bucket of chicken, half original half rotisserie.

The original was as expected - awesome and better than Popeye's. This was my first exposure to KFC's grilled chicken, which KFC seems to be pushing big time (you can get a free piece of the grilled chicken today). It was pretty good, but obviously not as good as the original. Given a choice between a bucket that is half and half v. all original, I'd go with all original. I'm sure the grilled is healthier than the fried, but (1) I'm not going to KFC to eat healthy; and (2) The grilled is probably still bad for you.

*I watched parts of Michael Clayton again, and you know what? That movie is really, really depressing if you are a lawyer. The fact that parts of the movie were filmed at my old firm make it hit even closer to home.

*The Phillies are great and I should have a World Series preview post up tomorrow.

Woke up this morning with flu-like symptoms. Saw the doctor, who prescribed me tami-flu and also wanted to give me a "test." I thought to myself, "okay, maybe they'll scrape some cheek cells or take some blood." Nope.



It was not especially pleasant.

Last night's Phillies 5-4 win was:

(1) Awesome, unbelievably awesome. Rollins has earned a 3-game pass from me mocking his inability to get on base.

(2) A clear example of why we don't need umpires.

I'll start with probably the least threatening position. Fair / foul calls. We've reached the point technologically where we can put a little gps marker in the ball and inside the fair/foul lines. So we can get every fair / foul call right (even the oh so tricky, ball that starts fair, passes the first or third base bag fair, and then goes into foul territory). If we do that, we can avoid monstrosities like this. Tennis already does this. It happens quickly, the call is always right, and the game is much better as a result.

Please note that, in the picture off of that link, Mauer's ball doesn't land on the line. It actually lands one foot in front of the line. The picture was taken while the ball was still in the air.

Okay, so if we're willing to do fair and foul calls, why not balls and strikes? Last night's game gave obvious examples of (1) an umpire just totally making up his own strike zone; (2) being inconsistent even at that; and (3) taking into account where the catcher sets up.

First, the rules of baseball give you the dimensions of the strike zone. If we want to edit them, that's fine, because noone ever calls the midpoint of the uniform top a strike. We can change the definition to top of pants to knees and over the plate. The point is, we have a set definition of what is a strike, but umpires do whatever the heck they feel like. Some will give you a higher strike, others won't. Some will give you a pretty wide berth on the corners, others won't. Why do we even have rules if umpires are going to call it as they feel like it?

Second, even assuming that an umpire is permitted to make up his own strike zone (and sometimes it is a pitcher specific strike zone, not a game specific one), they sometimes are wildly inconsistent even with that. A fine example would be the Russell Martin "strikeout" last night. The ball was probably six inches outside, and had not been called a strike all night for either side. Suddenly, on a 1-2 count (I think), Martin was called out and he was justifiably livid. If you have no idea what a strike is going to be, the game suffers.

Lastly, umpires are "fooled" a lot by where catchers set up. If a catcher sets up for a pitchout, and the pitcher throws it right to him, noone in their right mind would think its a strike. After all, we have this thing called "home plate" and the ball has to be over at least a part of it for it to be a strike. Yet, when the catcher sets up outside of the plate, and the pitcher throws the ball to the glove, the umpire will call it a strike. Conversely, when the catcher sets up outside, and the pitcher throws the ball seemingly "inside" but actually over the plate, it looks bad and the ball isn't called a strike.

The clearest example of this was to Ryan Howard last night. Wolf had him at a 2-1 count, Martin set up outside, and Wolf threw the ball literally right over the plate. Not inside corner, but seriously the entire ball was over the plate and knee high. The umpire called it a ball. A 3-1 count is obviously much different than a 2-2 count. Next pitch, high fastball, and BOOM Phillies lead 2-0.

There are, of course, many arguments, some rational, some completely senseless, to keep umpires. Some plays will inevitably require a human component (unless technology gets even better). Was the runner tagged at home? Did he beat the throw to first? For those instances, I don't have a problem with keeping an umpire or two on the field. And I'll admit, there is something to the visual effect of having a human being making a safe / out / ball / strike / fair / foul call, as opposed to something flashing up on the jumbotron.

But please don't say that umpire error is part of the game. The whole point of having any type of arbiter is to get the judgment right, not to get it right most of the time. Up until recently, an independent person was the best we had, since we obviously can't rely on the players to judge. But that's not the case anymore. We have the technology to get the call right every time. Why on earth wouldn't you use it?

Charlie Manuel has made some questionable moves in his tenure with Philadelphia. Some have worked out great. See Martinez, Pedro, Game 2, 2009 NLCS. Others, not so much. See Lidge, Brad, Entire 2009 Season. But despite yesterday's absolute crushination of the Dodgers (apparently witnessed firsthand by my doppelganger, that bastard), there is an issue that even Kim saw.

What on earth was Cliff Lee doing in the game in the 8th inning?

For those of you who were not paying attention, the Phillies were up 8-0 going into the top of the 8th inning. Cliff Lee had thrown 104 pitches. Stands to reason, you take Lee out.

Full disclosure - I'm a big pitch count guy. There are lots of studies out there that indicate that after a certain point, every pitch a pitcher throws increases his likelihood for injury. It might not be 100, and its probably different for every pitcher. But regardless, the general theory is that pitchers are more likely to get hurt if they throw too many pitches. See Dusty Baker's treatment of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Its not just that the pitcher will simply tire and throw bad pitches in his current start. It is that they are actually hurting themselves, limiting their effectiveness in future starts. A guy who throws 140 pitches in one start is probably not going to be real good in his next start. I don't think this is an exceptional proposition, but there are people out there who don't buy it.

Anyway, Lee had thrown 104 pitches, and the Phillies were up 8-0. The bullpen has been spicy all year, but come on. They're not going to blow an 8-0 lead. The 8th was even against the crappy part of the LA lineup - Blake, Loney, and Martin. Its clear you take out Lee, not necessarily to rest him in hopes of him coming back on short rest (you probably have to take him out after the 5th or 6th for that, also a defensible move though), but just to make sure he is effective whenever he pitches next.

Well, Manuel left him in, and luckily he set down the Dodgers 1-2-3 on 10 pitches. Easy enough.

But... and this is where Kim even was like WTF?!?! Manuel let Lee hit in the bottom of the 8th.

WHY ON EARTH IS LEE HITTING? ARE YOU SERIOUSLY GOING TO PUT HIM BACK IN TO PITCH FOR THE NINTH?

I'm sorry, I don't use caps lock very often, but I really want to convey how stupid this move was. You are up 8-0. You have one inning to go. Lee is your best pitcher, your most valuable pitching commodity. He has thrown 114 pitches already.

Lets ignore for a moment the whole "he's more likely to get hurt by throwing too many pitches" angle. What on earth do you have to gain by leaving him in for the ninth?

It can't be that you want to rest your bullpen. First of all, there was an off-day on Saturday, so everyone in the bullpen is rested. There is also an off-day between games 4 and 5, so anyone who goes during both games 3 and 4 would be fine for game 5. I also cannot point to anyone in the Phillies bullpen who is incapable of pitching on consecutive days.

And the downside? Maybe Belisario "loses control" and plunks Lee on the wrist. Maybe Lee gets a miracle hit and pulls a hamstring running the bases. Both of these are unlikely, but obviously the sports world would be full of articles DESROYING Manuel for leaving Lee in for no apparent reason. How about a convoluted and somewhat difficult-to-follow analogy. Let's say someone shows you a deck of cards. You can pick one out blindly. If you pick the four of clubs, you get $1,000 bucks. There is no fee involved to do this. You pick and you don't get it. Was that person stupid for offering it to you? Obviously yes, since there was no potential upside for them, only downside. The fact that you didn't get the $1,000 is irrelevant to whether their decision to offer it to you was stupid. Equally irrelevant is the fact that Lee didn't get clearly injured in the 8th inning.

And here is the most perplexing part of it. After Victorino's three-run homer made it 11-0, Manuel did not bring Lee out for the ninth.

So... you needed Lee in there to protect an 8-0 lead with one inning to go. But you did not need him in to protect an 11-0 lead. What conceivable difference is there in these two situations, where Lee will pitch the ninth for one, but not the other? Anyone?

Go Phils. Hopefully it won't even get to Lee for game 6.

I got to congratulate Victorino after his 3-run homer in the ninth:





[not really]

Go Phils!

In my mind, the key to the series for the Phillies is Jayson Werth.

We all know the usual matchups. Howard is absolutely anemic versus left handed pitching. Thus, in the starts involving Kershaw and Wolf, Howard will fare poorly. Similarly, in late innings, Howard will struggle (to put it kindly) against Kuo and Sherrill. If he does anything in this series, great, but I'm not counting on anything. On the Dodgers side, Andre Ethier is equally crappy against left handed pitching. And while our left-handed relievers are limited to Eyre and Bastardo, we do have Lee, Hamels, and Happ. So both teams have one player who will be effectively useless at the plate at least 60 percent of the time.

But the important thing is what happens when that left-handed starter or reliever runs into Jayson Werth. Werth (much like his counterpart Matt Kemp on the Dodgers), DESTROYS left handed pitching. Here are his split stats for 2009:

v. LHP: .302/.436/.644
v. RHP: .256/.348/.457

And for 2008:

v. LHP: .303/.368/.652
v. RHP: .255/.360/.407

In other words, Werth is basically one of the most potent hitters in baseball when a left-handed pitcher is on the mound. With a right hander, he is not terrible, but nowhere near the monster he is when a southpaw is staring him down.

While I think it will be incredibly important how Werth and Kemp do in the series, I think Werth's situation will be a bit more pronounced than Kemp. This is because of his position in the batting order.

Kemp hits second, in front of Ethier. Werth hits fifth, behind Ryan Howard. It would essentially be gross negligence for Torre to allow Howard to face a right-handed pitcher in any important late-game situation. So Torre will bring in Kuo or Sherrill (or hopefully this game-state will not arise, but leave Kershaw in), which means that barring some sort of new rule where left-handers have to pitch from second base, he is out. And then Werth will stride to the plate. And what will Torre do?

I predict that, at least one time, Torre's thought process will be:

"You know... Kuo / Sherrill is really dealing out there. He just made Howard look downright stupid. I have Broxton ready to go, but I'll just save him for the ninth. Don't want him getting tired. Werth isn't that good against lefties, is he? Let's leave Kuo / Sherrill in there."

And then it will be up to Werth. And hopefully, he will be able to come through, much like his WWE look-alike always does:

Sometimes I get emails from The Borgata, The Tropicana, and other casinos offering me things that are free, but not particularly great. They usually consist of free weeknight rooms, special rates for a weekend room (although they're not that special), or comedy club tickets. In other words, nothing all that useful or good to someone who works during the week and doesn't like paying $300 for a weekend room.

But for some reason, I got an email a few days ago about a free Friday night room. I was shocked and amazed! Why? Is it the economy and AC is desperate to get people down there? Is it the two or three visits in a one-month span I took a short while ago? Is it that the Borgata is angry that I somehow ended up ahead* on every one of those trips? Who knows.

*For the longest time, lets say a year or a year and a half, I think I lost on EVERY SINGLE TRIP I took to the Borgata. If I went anywhere else in AC or even Vegas I would win. If I went to the Borgata, I would lose everything quickly. This experience is not unique to me. Other people have recounted similar experiences, finding it just impossible to win at The Borgata. I'm truly confounded by my three visit winning streak, although I'm a little afraid too.

I know I'm never going to spend enough time down there to get a Black Label card (you have to earn $1,000 comp dollars in a year to get that), but hopefully I'm on the right track to having an occassional comped weekend room. I better go big on my next visit to keep this up! Gee, it almost seems like I'm falling into a trap...

This gift ranks up there with the Chase Utley autographed picture from Christmas.

Kim is great!

Mexican Restaurant Chain Review: Baja Fresh

For the last year or so, Gibbs has been raving about Baja Fresh. His points in favor of it included a salsa bar, extremely high quality meat, and overall tastiness. He ranked it higher than Chipotle, which I assume means it also is higher than Qdoba. As our weekly happy hour was at Snafu (47th between 3rd and Lexington, cool bar with good specials on a daily basis), and there was a Baja Fresh on 45th and Lexington, we decided to give it a shot.

Variety

The first thing you notice is the menu - there are a LOT of choices. In fact, Ben had this to say about the amount of things you can purchase at Baja Fresh:

08:09:47 BEN: too much choice
08:10:07 BEN: i looked like a jerk store there cause it took me 15 minutes to order

I think though, Ben's indecisiveness notwithstanding, that choice is good. Baja Fresh has the usual choices of meats (chicken, carnitas, steak), but also offers shrimp. There are a wide variety of specialty burritos and tacos that sound pretty good. They also offer quesadillas there, which Chipotle does not. It took me approximately 20 seconds to decide on the burrito mexicano: Your choice of charbroiled chicken, pork carnitas or charbroiled steak, rice and freshly simmered black or pinto beans all layered with fresh, chopped cilantro and onions and your choice of salsa.
Edge: Baja Fresh

Salsa

While Baja Fresh has a clear edge in the variety category of menu items, I feel that it is lacking in the variety area for salsa. I prefer the medium corn salsa that Chipotle and Qdoba both offer. This was noticably absent from the salsa bar.

Unlike Chipotle and Qdoba, salsa is not placed in your burrito or taco by the server. Instead, Baja Fresh has a salsa bar where you can take as much or as little as you want. In theory, this is an interesting idea. But in practice, I'm not a fan.

First, there were a lot of gnats around the salsa bar. Gnats apparently like salsa too. So you have to deal with the sanitation issues. Second, and more importantly, I like having my corn salsa already in my burrito. I don't feel like dipping my burrito into it every time (and this wouldn't even work for corn salsa anyway). So if you are like me, you either have to open up your burrito to pour salsa in, or dip. Neither option compares to it already being in your burrito waiting for you.

Edge: Chipotle

Taste

I did enjoy my steak burrito mexicano. The meat and rice were good, and the cilantro and onions added a lot. I wish I could add both to the burritos I usually get at Chipotle. However, I was not blown away by it by any stretch of the imagination. I would say, at best, the taste is on par with Chipotle.

Edge: Push or slight edge Chipotle

Portion

Ah, probably Baja Fresh's biggest failing. Kim ordered two tacos. I ordered one burrito. We also got a couple bags of chips which I guess come with every order. After finishing our meal, we heated up a cheeseburger we made from the night before and split it. I could have eaten more after that but we were out of cheeseburgers. There simply are not enough fillings in the burrito.

Full disclosure - I eat a full chipotle burrito for lunch or dinner, and usually am content, but not completely full. If you cannot finish a chipotle burrito, then this may not be an issue for you.

Edge: Chipotle

Overall

I'm sticking with Chipotle. The salsa bar idea is interesting, but ultimately leaves me with a worse burrito. There isn't any corn salsa, and was hungry after I ate my burrito. The taste was certainly good, but it wasn't better than Chipotle. While I'm not totally averse to eating at Baja Fresh again, if there was a Chipotle nearby I'd go to that instead.

I had miraculously tied the first place team on the last day of our fantasy baseball season. We were both at 81.5. The situation was thus:

1) If I was able to get one more win out of a pitcher, I would gain a half point and take the lead.

2) If I was somehow able to lower my ERA by .02, I would gain a half point and take the lead.

3) If any closer on Swann's team got a save, I would lose a half point.

4) If I ended tied with the first place team, I would lose the championship on the first tiebreaker - ERA.

So as I watched things develop, there were many ups and downs. First, Wade Davis completely imploded after throwing five shutout innings against the Yankees, losing not only my chance at a win, but also severely damaging my hopes for the ERA category.

The next huge momentum swing came courtesy of Trevor Hoffman. He entered the game for the Brewers with a one run lead. If he got the save, I would basically have no chance of winning. Hoffman struck out Holliday to start the inning, but then incredibly walked the next THREE guys. I was going crazy watching the box score update, as Ben and James can attest. Then, a long blurb of text popped up. Fielders choice, man out at second, run scores! Save blown!!!! WOOOOOOOO!

And things were going great for my final starter of the day. Jonathan Sanchez, the guy who threw a no-hitter earlier this year, was crushing the San Diego Padres (at Petco Field) 3-0. I needed the win and things would be great! Except I realized that Swann's team also had Brian Wilson, the closer for the Giants. So that complicated things - I needed Sanchez to win, but Wilson to not get the save. A 4 run victory was the key.

And... it didn't even come to that. Of all people, FRIGGIN DAVID ECKSTEIN ended my fantasy season.

David Eckstein, the guy who is generously listed at 5'7" 177.

David Eckstein, the guy who had ONE home run all season before yesterday.

David Eckstein, the guy with the .334 SLUGGING PERCENTAGE.

He came up with one man on, and promptly launched a two run homer. I have no idea how he did this, and I refuse to find a clip of it.

But that didn't exactly end my season, it only severely damaged it. My pitcher was still up 3-2, and while a save was much more likely if they won, SF could still come through. And they almost did. Up 3-2 in the top of the 7th, the Giants had one man on and two out, and the Padres oddly intentionally walked Pablo Sandoval. That brought up Juan Uribe with two men on base. A home run would push the lead to 4! He promptly struck out and that was the end of the top of the 7th.

The Giants brought in Randy Johnson in the bottom of the 7th. Maybe he would just finish out the game? Maybe?

Well it didn't get too far. He loaded the bases with one out, and that brought up... David Friggin Eckstein. I knew I had no chance.

So Eckstein somehow hit a sacrifice fly... to the third baseman Pablo Sandoval. He hit a foul ball, and Sandoval ran over to the dugout to catch it. Catch it he did, a spectacular catch that ended with him flipping over the railing. However, there is apparently some rule where if you leave the field of play to catch a ball, the runners move up a base. Awesome. Just awesome. Thanks for that. Sanchez's win was gone, as were my chances to win the league.

And to add insult to injury, Sandoval homered an inning or two later, and then Brian Wilson got the save. So the final standings were 81.5 to 81, although a tie would have been a loss for me anyway. Bah.

*Theo Epstein is kind of the man, and I love how he comes right out in this radio interview and essentially gives a blueprint how to build a good offense. It seems odd that he's so open about it - after all, if you have some sort of competitive advantage, why would you share it? I guess he's not too concerned about it, as while the importance of not making outs should be common knowledge by now, you still see people throw good money at players like Mike Jacobs and talk derisively about Billy Beane.

*I'm currently at a hotel in Princeton, NJ for a wedding. And I'll say this - I sort of miss NJ sometimes. I remember living in Highland Park and New Brunswick, walking or taking a Rutgers bus to work, driving to Princeton or TCNJ to teach LSAT classes - that was a weird but pretty fun time. There is a certain charm to NJ. No, really, there is.

*Awesome article from The Onion about Michael Vick and dogfighting.

*Tomorrow is the last day of the baseball regular season, and for the second straight year, our fantasy baseball league is going to come right down to the wire. Last year, I mananged to gain 3 points on the last day, thanks to something ridiculous like 35 innings pitched (out of mostly free agent starters), 3 earned runs, 4 wins, 30 strikeouts. It was enough for me to pass Roth and take home a championship. This year is even more spicy, as more categories are in play - I could either win the league or finish an unlikely third. I'll be relying on the likes of Wade Davis, John Danks, J.A. Happ (actually regulars on my team) and then some random guys like Jonathan Sanchez, Homer Bailey, and Chris Narveson. The first place team is throwing 7 starting pitchers out there to counter me. It will take a fair amount of luck for me to successfully defend the championship.

*Here is a somewhat entertaining casino review of the Denny's Casino (Casino Royale).